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FX Trends: G10 currencies: Eyes on US trade policy

25 March 2025

Key takeaways

  • “Liberation Day” on 2 April is likely to see “safe haven” currencies, like the JPY and the CHF, outperforming “risk on” counterparts, like the AUD, the NZD and CAD.
  • In particular, the USD should fare better…
  • …if US President Trump’s hawkish trade policy rhetoric is matched by tariff action.

Our tactical view

Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY):An up (⬆) / down (⬇) / sideways (➡) arrow indicates that the first currency quotedin the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report.

Note: ^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP,CAD, SEK and CHF. Source: HSBC

FX Data Snapshot

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